Gold – a practical valuation framework and key drivers for 2025

Gold – a practical valuation framework and key drivers for 2025

15 May 2025

As global geopolitical relations become increasingly intense and complex, investors are seeking uncorrelated assets to enhance portfolio resilience. Since the Great Financial Crisis, central banks—particularly those in emerging markets—have been net buyers of gold to diversify away from USD-denominated assets. This trend has accelerated over the past three years, especially following sanctions on Russia. 

This event offered a deep dive into this question with Johan, Senior Quantitative Analyst at the World Gold Council and principal author of a key research paper on gold’s long-term expected returns. Johan shared valuable insights into the main factors influencing gold prices in 2025 and presented a reasoned framework for evaluating gold as an investment. He was joined by Robin Tsui, APAC Gold Strategist at SSGA, who played a pivotal role in expanding the presence of SPDR Gold ETFs in the APAC region through research, education, strategic positioning, and client outreach.

Key takeaways include:

  1. Gold valuation should consist of 2 components – economic and financial. Investors tend to value gold considering only its financial component (i.e. gold’s value as safe haven asset). Long-term returns of gold tend to be driven by consumers (which remains the largest source of gold demand and correlates with disposable income – i.e. economic component) and mirror global nominal GDP.
  1. Demand from Asia and central banks (which has doubled over the past 3 years and now accounting for ~20% of gold demand) are two strong pillars for the gold price performance and are expected to remain so.
  1. Crypto is not a replacement but rather a complement to gold within a portfolio context.

Event Details
Date: Thursday, 15 May 2025
Time: 12:30pm – 2:00PM 
Location: PwC Singapore, 7 Straits View, Marina One East Tower (Level 12), Singapore 0189361

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